The world is nuts, nuts I say! I wanted to time stamp some of my thoughts in here on the state of financial markets as of today, this morning, right now on 7 June, 2017 the day before “Super Thursday” which is
- The ECB interest rate decision and press conference
- Former FBI Director Comey testifies
- Exit polls from British General Election where Theresa May is expected to win, which we’ll have an answer on Friday morning
- Brazil could announce if the 2014 election results are void due to fraud
Then would love to follow back up after all the news is out and update my new thoughts after all this whacky stuff happens!
I’ve no political affiliation here, my job is to interpret the situation at any given time (and hopefully in the future) and position myself in a way to take advantage of the opportunities presented, but more so to prevent from catastrophe. Not implying catastrophe is imminent only that this is how I’m viewing the global macro situation. One party will effect me one way, so I need to interpret and adjust to their system and another party will do it another way so I adjust to that system. I’ve found that being political in my views forces mistakes in my decision making, I already know that paying more taxes is something I don’t like so I have to take that into account when I make decisions. I also know that if my dollars can’t buy as much as before even though I’m paying less in taxes, it’s the same net result as higher taxes. Healthcare, environment, infrastructure, weak dollar, security, or any other number of political initiatives are very emotional for a lot of people, for good reason. My larger goal is to not let any of these issues interfere in my analysis and decision making except anticipating the results of the changes.
To state it even more clearly, none of my views here are political, merely my personal interpretation and I’m sharing with you all because I’m curious of any thoughts you all might have.
Crypto Currency Positions
- Long BTC, ETH, XMR. SJCX, VTC, STR
- Short XRP/BTC and ETH/BTC
To clarify the XRP/BTC play means that I’m short XRP and I’m long BTC at the same time, so as BTC rises and XRP stays the same price, I make money. As XRP drops and BTC rises I make a lot more money. If XRP rises and BTC drops or stays the same, I lose money.
ETH/BTC this is a bet that ETH will pull back a little bit here while BTC runs to 3000, 4000 or 5000. Not that I don’t believe ETH will also run away to 300, 1000, 5000, but on a short term basis I’m looking to trade it a bit lower.
While XRP and Ripple are definite shorts, ETH/BTC is just a trade
I continue to own and buy more ETH any time I get my hands on more cash as I don’t trust the dollar.
Global Macro Positions
- Long GBP/USD, TLT
- Short SPY, USDJPY, USDCAD
The Dollar! I’m short USDJPY and have been since March in a big way, this week it finally materialized and started moving towards the $100 level (my first target) and expect an even bigger move down. I believe this week might be the catalyst for some bad financial times to come, not trying to be an alarmist, but verbalizing what I think is going to start playing out.
At 0% interest rates worldwide, I don’t think there is much else that can be done when another financial crisis happens (China, Canada, Qatar, N Korea, the EU just bailed out Banco Popular in Spain last night) war in western Europe (terror attacks are daily/weekly events that we just shrug at and so common that we don’t even apply Facebook filters for anymore). So I imagine there will be some rate hikes, albeit short lived, so as the central banks have a little ammo to work with.
The Russian hacking of electoral machines report is an actual act of cyber war, by actively hacking a US Federal Government device, it’s the equivalent of the Russian Military shooting US Military, this is not a political opinion and totally different than the Fake News/Russia influenced the election political argument. This is clearly something that is being addressed on so many federal levels, and I’m certain no one in the world wants to go to war with Russia over this, very VERY interesting.
Also WTF, this Reality Winner NSA Contractor, who leaked the documents to The Intercept does not make sense to me. She has a TS, she knows the repercussions of her actions mean federal prison for a long time, her family goes through hell, something is fishy here. So she’s altruistic? Did somebody inside NSA set her up? Is she part of a coup? Might be more to come on this, might not be.
The timing of the Qatar sanctions, Germany pulling out of Turkey, Turkey deploying troops to Qatar, the US having CentCom in Qatar, Iran bombing, so many things happening there right now to name and I certainly haven’t spent enough time thinking about it yet. Though I believe it might very well be WWIII or just nothing. Regardless I’m going to just make a brief mention of it because well I need to think on it more.
Trump is unraveling a lot of what has been built up since Nixon. A Bush or Clinton has been in the top 3 positions of our government since 1980 save for a few short term windows, and in high level government roles since Nixon. Tillerson was placed by GWB to ensure the wheels don’t fall off, but Trump seems to be making some interesting moves.
This summer is shaping up to be a very exciting time to be alive.
If we make it through June without a major catastrophe then September is the next time frame I’m most worried about.
Have a plan